Monday, October 13, 2014

First NFL posting.

Ranking in the NFL isn't nearly as important as in college, but I still like it more.  Especially now since the Browns actually are interesting, statistically speaking.  We'll have to talk about that in a bit.  But for the moment consider the current power ranks I have after week six.







OFFENSE RANK DEFENSE RANK
RECORD SS
1 DENVER
  1 10
4-1-0 4
2 SAN DIEGO
  4 8   5-1-0 28
3 BALTIMORE
  11 3
4-2-0 18
4 ARIZONA
  15 4   4-1-0 3
5 SEATTLE
  5 6
3-2-0 1
6 DALLAS
  7 5   5-1-0 20
7 DETROIT
  23 1
4-2-0 29
8 SAN FRANCISCO
  14 2   4-2-0 7
9 INDIANAPOLIS
  2 19
4-2-0 10
10 GREEN BAY
  6 17   4-2-0 18
11 CINCINNATI
  8 14
3-1-1 15
12 NEW ENGLAND
  12 11   4-2-0 27
13 KANSAS CITY
  10 12
2-3-0 6
14 CLEVELAND
  3 23   3-2-0 25
15 PHILADELPHIA
  21 13
5-1-0 32
16 HOUSTON
  24 9   3-3-0 24
17 CHICAGO
  13 18
3-3-0 23
18 CAROLINA
  9 26   3-2-1 9
19 BUFFALO
  22 7
3-3-0 5
20 MIAMI
  17 20   2-3-0 17
21 NY GIANTS
  18 22
3-3-0 13
22 NEW ORLEANS   16 25   2-3-0 26
23 PITTSBURGH
  26 15
3-3-0 22
24 TENNESSEE
  25 21   2-4-0 7
25 MINNESOTA
  30 16
2-4-0 21
26 ATLANTA
  19 31   2-4-0 31
27 WASHINGTON
  20 28
1-5-0 11
28 TAMPA BAY   29 29   1-5-0 29
29 NY JETS
  31 24
1-5-0 2
30 ST LOUIS
  27 27   1-4-0 14
31 OAKLAND
  28 32
0-5-0 12
32 JACKSONVILLE
  32 30   0-6-0 16

To nobody's' surprise Denver comes out on top.  Cincinnati started the season in that position, but have slipped with two less than convincing performances.  San Diego is also not so shocking, but I'm certain noone would have Baltimore in at three right now. But they have the spot based on a solid defense and an efficient offense.  Plus they are winning.

Now the really interesting part.  Cleveland's offense shows up at number three overall.  Not to bad I must say.  And higher that even I would have guessed.  Given the level of incredulity on most of your faces, I must take a moment to explain that number in a little  more detail.

The offense category is comprised of a handful of stats.  Most often in the media the pundits will look at one, Total Offensive Yards, and determine the best squad from that one measly data point.  This is the entire reason why I started this hobby.

So for this exercise we look at six categories.  Record, Total Offensive Points, Total Offensive Touchdowns, Total Offensive Yards, Turnovers Committed, and Allowing Opposing Defense to Score.  It is a sliding scale and not all data is weighted the same.  This weighting is where the subjectivity comes into play.  I find that total yards isn't the best indicator of success in the NFL.  Offensive Touchdowns and Turnovers seem to have the highest co-relation with winning.  So they are weighted heavily.  The Browns are third in Offensive TDs and first in committing turnovers (ie the least with two).  In the other categories Offensive scoring they are ninth, in total yards they are eleventh, and also first in allowing opposing defenses to score (which has a smaller weight).

So based on my biases, the Browns are doing well indeed.  They move the ball well (but not great), and they put it into the endzone more often than not and they take care of the ball.  This to me is the first half of the recipe to winning games.  Now if they can work on the defense....

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