Week 16 NFL Power Rank

Well after sixteen weeks Seattle has really settled in at the number one position.  Even a hard fought loss to the ninth ranked Arizona squad couldn't dislodge the Seahawks from the top spot.

Also interesting is that all four of the top teams have a top four defense.  Defense seems to be rulling the season despite the usual suspects slinging all day long.  Also note that the top offenses are Denver, New Orleans, and New England.  Philadelphia is the only team of top ten offenses that isn't lead by an accepted number one QB.  Although there is still hot debate about Andy Daulton in Cincinnati, I would still argue that he is in the top half of the league and unquestionably a starting NFL QB at this time with a still undetermined ceiling.  Anyway, the really strange thing about Philly is that while they are the number four offense thus far, they were shut out offensively in two consecutive weeks this season.  Talk about Jeckle and Hyde.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	SEATTLE	1		9	1		12-3-0	18
2	CAROLINA	2		13	2		11-4-0	14
3	CINCINNATI	4		10	4		10-5-0	25
4	SAN FRANCISCO	5		16	3		11-4-0	15
5	DENVER	3		1	26		12-3-0	25
6	NEW ORLEANS	7		2	10		10-5-0	7
7	NEW ENGLAND	6		3	24		11-4-0	20
8	KANSAS CITY	8		21	5		11-4-0	32
9	ARIZONA	10		18	7		10-5-0	9
10	INDIANAPOLIS	9		5	14		10-5-0	11
11	PHILADELPHIA	11		4	21		9-6-0	30
12	SAN DIEGO	12		7	22		8-7-0	24
13	MIAMI	15		25	12		8-7-0	5
14	PITTSBURGH	16		17	16		7-8-0	21
15	CHICAGO	13		6	28		8-7-0	29
16	BALTIMORE	20		30	8		8-7-0	27
17	GREEN BAY	14		8	27		7-7-1	31
18	DETROIT	17		12	17		7-8-0	28
19	ST LOUIS	19		20	11		7-8-0	4
20	BUFFALO	18		22	13		6-9-0	17
21	TENNESSEE	21		15	23		6-9-0	13
22	NY GIANTS	23		32	6		6-9-0	8
23	DALLAS	22		14	29		8-7-0	23
24	WASHINGTON	26		23	15		3-12-0	19
25	TAMPA BAY	27		29	9		4-11-0	1
26	NY JETS	25		28	20		7-8-0	12
27	CLEVELAND	24		26	19		4-11-0	10
28	OAKLAND	29		27	18		4-11-0	21
29	MINNESOTA	30		19	32		4-10-1	5
30	ATLANTA	28		11	31		4-11-0	2
31	HOUSTON	31		24	25		2-13-0	3
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		31	30		4-11-0	15

The Browns seem to want to join Houston in a plummet to end the season.  After peaking in the low 20's the Browns are now at 27 and threatening to finish in the bottom five. 

If the season ended this week the playoff teams include:

Denver (#5)
New England (#7)
Cincinnati (#3)
Indianapolis (#10)
Kansas City (#8)
Miami (#13)

Seattle (#1)
Carolina (#2)
Philadelphia (# 11)
Chicago (# 15)
San Francisco (#4)
New Orleans (#6)

Since there are only twelve teams in the playoffs that means Miami (#13) and Chicago (#15) are taking a spot from a more deserving team.  At this time these teams include Arizona (#9) and San Diego (#12)

With a strong performance Miami will move up, Pittsburgh and Baltimore (both still alive) have a far longer shot at finishing in the top twelve should they slip into the playoffs.

The potential travesty brewing is a sudden Dallas win and in scenario out of the woeful NFC East.  I think the NFL would try to tilt the game to the Eagles this weekend just to avoid a team as bad as the Cowboys in the playoffs.  Currently " 'dem cowboys" with an average offense and abysmal defense stand to go down with such esteemed teams as the 2012 Colts (#20), 2011 Broncos (#23), 2010 Seahawks (#30), 2009 Bengals (#19), 2009 Cardinals (#20) as the worst teams to make the playoffs in the last six years.

Well one more weekend and that will end up another season.  Merry Christmas.

NCAA Division 1 Football Rankings

After toying around with the idea for a few years I've finally done and created a College Division 1A ranking model.  It is a bit more complicated and time consuming than the NFL version.  This is why it took five years to get around to it.

While I like this first version I think I may still tweak the subjective weights.  But all in all I like the results.  Part of what I like is that there is both overlap and contradictions with the accepted "wisdom" of the national voters and the junk BCS ratings.

On to my top 25:

RANK	SCHOOL	RECORD		CONFERENCE	OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK
1	FLORIDA ST	13 - 0		ACC	2	1
2	BAYLOR	11 - 1		BIG 12	1	7
3	ALABAMA	11 - 1		SEC	11	3
4	OHIO ST	12 - 1		BIG 10	3	32
5	LOUISVILLE	11 - 1		AMERICAN	14	4
6	AUBURN	12 - 1		SEC	5	51
7	MICHIGAN ST	12 - 1		BIG 10	32	2
8	ARIZONA ST	10 - 3		PAC 12	6	11
9	OKLAHOMA ST	10 - 2		BIG 12	13	6
10	MISSOURI	11 - 2		SEC	9	14
11	CLEMSON	10 - 2		ACC	18	12
12	OREGON	10 - 2		PAC 12	7	22
13	UCF	11 - 1		AMERICAN	27	33
14	NORTHERN ILLINOIS	12 - 1		MAC	8	82
15	S CAROLINA	10 - 2		SEC	17	34
16	FRESNO ST	11 - 1		MOUNTAIN WEST	23	66
17	BOWLING GREEN	10 - 3		MAC	25	20
18	STANFORD	11 - 2		PAC 12	33	31
19	WISCONSIN	9 - 3		BIG 10	19	19
20	BALL ST	10 - 2		MAC	26	64
21	OKLAHOMA	10 - 2		BIG 12	41	16
22	E CAROLINA	9 - 3		CUSA	15	47
23	MIAMI	9 - 3		ACC	28	49
24	DUKE	10 - 3		ACC	50	40
25	RICE	10 - 3		CUSA	34	39

Now if it were up to me, Florida State would be playing Baylor in the final game.  Not only is Baylor the only offense that has statistically outperformed FSU, but Baylor lead the NCAAs until their loss a couple weeks back. 

Also for my Big 10 folks, note that MSU and Ohio State are mirror images of each other statistically.  It would be great to see them play again.

Now the first reason why this is more complicated than the NFL ranks on my blog is that there are so many teams.  Unlike the 32 in the NFL there are 126 Division 1 schools in the NCAA.  In order for my model to work I needed all data from all schools in all games. 

The second issue is that nearly all schools play at least one game against a division 1-AA school at some point.  Now in order to properly generate a weight for a 1 AA school I would in theory need to keep track of all 1 AA schools so that they would have proper data.  Now you see how this gets more cumbersome.  The work around I employed was to average all statistical measures of 1 AA schools to generate the single game statistics weights.  Generally these schools did rather poorly.  But strange enough, statistically the 1AA schools were as a group not the worst in the collegiate ranks.

Incidentially the BCS top 25 are this:

1	Florida State
2	Auburn
3	Alabama
4	Michigan State
5	Stanford
6	Baylor
7	Ohio State
8	Missouri
9	South Carolina
10	Oregon
11	Oklahoma
12	Clemson
13	Oklahoma State
14	Arizona State
15	UCF
16	LSU
17	UCLA
18	Louisville
19	Wisconsin
20	Fresno State
21	Texas A&M
22	Georgia
23	Northern Illinois
24	Duke
25	USC

Texas A&M, LSU, USC and UCLA are all noteably overrated by the BCS according to my system, just as Louisville, Baylor, Arizona State are all underrated by the BCS.  After looking at every box score from 126 teams (most of which having played twelve games), I like my results better.

Part of my goal here was to be able to more fully appreciate which conferences rank the best.  And in this case the public opinion does match the results.

The SEC has, in my system, the highest average ranking position at 48.00. 

	CONFERENCE	AVE SCHOOL RANK
1	SEC	48.00
2	BIG 10	51.75
2	PAC 12	51.75
4	ACC	56.93
5	BIG 12	59.60
6	AMERICAN	70.20
7	CUSA	72.50
8	MOUNTAIN WEST	72.75
9	MAC	73.46

It was an interesting exercise.  The results were both surprising and not at the same time.  And that is all I could hope for.

Week 14 NFL Power Ranks

Week 14 is late, I know.  Fifteen has already begun.  But here is the list.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	SEATTLE	1		7	2		11-2-0	22
2	CAROLINA	2		13	1		9-4-0	10
3	NEW ORLEANS	3		2	10		10-3-0	14
4	KANSAS CITY	6		21	3		10-3-0	32
5	CINCINNATI	5		11	5		9-4-0	25
6	SAN FRANCISCO	7		19	4		9-4-0	4
7	DENVER	4		1	28		11-2-0	20
8	NEW ENGLAND	8		3	24		10-3-0	26
9	ARIZONA	9		18	6		8-5-0	11
10	MIAMI	12		17	11		7-6-0	16
11	PHILADELPHIA	10		6	20		8-5-0	24
12	INDIANAPOLIS	13		8	25		8-5-0	11
13	CHICAGO	11		4	23		7-6-0	27
14	GREEN BAY	14		9	21		6-6-1	29
15	BALTIMORE	17		29	8		7-6-0	31
16	DETROIT	15		10	18		7-6-0	19
17	PITTSBURGH	18		15	17		5-8-0	28
18	SAN DIEGO	16		5	29		6-7-0	22
19	TAMPA BAY	24		27	9		4-9-0	2
20	NY GIANTS	21		32	7		5-8-0	9
21	TENNESSEE	20		22	15		5-8-0	17
22	DALLAS	23		14	27		7-6-0	17
23	ST LOUIS	19		23	16		5-8-0	3
24	WASHINGTON	27		24	14		3-10-0	7
25	CLEVELAND	22		26	12		4-9-0	7
26	OAKLAND	26		28	13		4-9-0	30
27	BUFFALO	25		25	19		4-9-0	6
28	HOUSTON	28		16	26		2-11-0	11
29	NY JETS	29		30	22		6-7-0	20
30	MINNESOTA	31		20	31		3-9-1	5
31	ATLANTA	30		12	32		3-10-0	1
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		31	30		4-9-0	14

The top three didn't budge this week.  But the Browns moved up a spot with a valiant effort against the Patriots.  Such a strange and volatile year...

Week 13

Seattle's beat down of the Saints and their better than average defense has catapulted the Seahawks into the first position.

As for us in Cleveland, we have yet again entered into the realm of draft discussion.  It's too bad since the Browns looked promising a few times this year.  Certainly Quarterback play has been the most noticeable and face-palming aspect to this years team, however the defense has had its own growing pains. 

I have liked the front office ability to assess talent overall.  Many, but not all, of the personnel decisions have looked good thus far.  It will most interesting to see how the brain trust handles free agents like Mack and Ward.

I also have some optimism in the coaching staff overall.  While they didn't knock it out of the park this season, it was rare that the coaching staff was outdone by their opponents this season.  Although I would like to see a little more frankness from the Big Chud, kind of like a Tomlin.  But the coach speak is merely a reflection of the organizations culture, and that is still changing.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	SEATTLE	1		5	2		11-1-0	26
2	CAROLINA	2		13	1		9-3-0	22
3	NEW ORLEANS	3		2	11		9-3-0	17
4	CINCINNATI	5		14	4		8-4-0	27
5	NEW ENGLAND	6		3	19		9-3-0	19
6	DENVER	4		1	28		10-2-0	24
7	SAN FRANCISCO	7		24	3		8-4-0	7
8	KANSAS CITY	8		22	5		9-3-0	32
9	ARIZONA	11		21	7		7-5-0	11
10	INDIANAPOLIS	10		10	22		8-4-0	15
11	DETROIT	9		4	17		7-5-0	19
12	MIAMI	12		23	9		6-6-0	13
13	CHICAGO	13		7	20		6-6-0	14
14	GREEN BAY	16		6	26		5-6-1	19
15	BALTIMORE	18		27	8		6-6-0	22
16	PITTSBURGH	17		16	16		5-7-0	29
17	PHILADELPHIA	14		9	27		7-5-0	31
18	TENNESSEE	15		19	14		5-7-0	24
19	DALLAS	22		17	24		7-5-0	27
20	ST LOUIS	19		18	18		5-7-0	3
21	BUFFALO	23		12	25		4-8-0	10
22	NY GIANTS	21		32	6		5-7-0	12
23	SAN DIEGO	20		8	29		5-7-0	16
24	WASHINGTON	25		20	15		3-9-0	18
25	HOUSTON	26		15	23		2-10-0	5
26	CLEVELAND	24		28	13		4-8-0	8
27	TAMPA BAY	28		26	10		3-9-0	1
28	OAKLAND	27		29	12		4-8-0	30
29	MINNESOTA	31		25	31		3-8-1	4
30	ATLANTA	29		11	32		3-9-0	2
31	NY JETS	30		30	21		5-7-0	6
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		31	30		3-9-0	8