I can't begin to claim that these predictions are published before the season began. In fact I've already compiled and calculated the first week rankings. (to be posted soon)
You just have to trust that I haven't allowed the first week to deter my *Bold Predictions*
In my last posting I talked about the NFC east extensively (if a bit on the rambling side), so I won't hit on it much again.
On to the show.
After years of agonizing over the Browns, and trying to fit my world view on football into the pathetic reality of expansion football mixed with incompetent management; I threw my hands up one sunny fall afternoon and told my lovely wife that I had finished with the Browns and was divorcing them. She wisely took that bit of frustration and parlayed it into several weekends without actually having to watch any football.
As a friend predicted, it would only be a separation. Which is generally true. But certainly the separation allowed me to see what really goes on with successful football teams. What ties them all together. From my analysis it comes to two things 1) QB play and 2) Coaching. In that order.
Great QBs are all that matter. They win year in and year out. They mean you always have a shot at the postseason. Period. This of course isn't to be construed as they always make the postseason. This is an important distinction. Even great QBs have off years. But the shot is always there. They seldom miss several years in a row. And they make up for poor defense, special teams and coaching in one fell swoop. Watch Payton Manning this season as he takes the generally feeble Denver offense and makes them AFC West division champs.
Of course this is where you tell me that I'm just reacting to his dismantling of the vaunted (but noticeably slower) Pittsburgh defense. Certainly this just reaffirms my position that Denver's D is good enough to contend with an average or below average QB (see Tim Tebow). But this just means that I think the Broncos will finish with 10 or more wins instead of originally thinking it would be 9.
The rest of the division is mediocre to bad.
San Diego still seems to be the most talented offense after Denver.
But they still have a second tier QB. The sort of fellow who can put up
numbers but fails to win the really big ones. And Rivers has yet to
prove that he can do it without a hall of fame running back at his side.
The Raiders are still waking up from the Al Davis haze like a hung over 21 year old at his older brothers bachelors party. Wondering how the tiger ended up in his bathroom. Palmer is a third tier QB at best. But McFadden is the real deal. Oakland should again play a chaotic roll in the AFC throwing off good teams when tehy think they're on a hot streak.
Romeo and Chefs (sic) seem to be the sexy up and coming pick yet again.
I've yet to see anything that proves that Cassell is anything more than a systems guy. A
poor mans Flacco.
The AFC South proves that as the level QB play diminishes the importance of the head coach increases.
Both Houston and Tennessee have QBs not quite at that top level. Of course I'm assuming a lot with Locker. And he still may prove to be a top tier QB. Of course Schaub is a second or third level QB with a good coaching staff and defense to go with it.
I'm going with Tennessee this year. They have a proven back (although he doesn't look it in week one). An improved receiver corp. A good young QB with all the support he needs. I'm guessing between Schaub's yearly siesta mid season, Houston's lack of experience as the top dog and Tennessee's desire to get back into the playoffs we'll see a switch at the top here this year.
Houston will take a wild card spot.
Jacksonville and Indy are just to weak to consider in teh hunt. Although the jury is still out on Gabbart. If he turns around with MJD at his side, you still have a weak team. Certainly not enough to overcome some tough competition elsewhere in the division and conference.
The AFC East shows you what happens when you mix a great QB with a great coach. It's called the New England Patriots. It's possible that they don't win their eighth division title in nine years. But I'm not betting on it. When you have a system with a master to run it, you win games. And beat bad teams into dust. I do look for NE to be more balanced. It seems to me that part of their longevity in success comes from an ability to change the nature of the offense as the league catches up. I'm betting that Ridley is ready to roll and the gaudy Brady numbers will be toned down a bit. Week one has proven me correct thus far, but I won't claim omniscience yet.
Buffalo, NY Jets and Miami are all beyond much hope anymore. None have a top tier QB or a top coaching staff. The Jets are poised for an epic crash and burn. And Tannehill is not the sort of QB who comes out with the polish of a Dalton. Buffalo has been another "it" team with people expecting them to turn the corner any minute now. They'll be waiting all year for that one.
Still two more installments to go. See you next time.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Bold Predictions I
I need to get this post in before it's no longer viable to claim that I haven't watched any regular season football this year.
Of course the NFL kicks off tonight with defending league champions, the NY Giants, running into the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys. If you're reading this you know this already, or are my wife who may or may not know, but wants to see what I'm typing these days.
My first bold (or kind'a bold) prediction of the season involves the Giants and their division, the NFC East.
According to NFL scheduling protocol, this is the year our Cleveland Browns play all four teams from the NFC East, which historically has two or maybe three strong teams most seasons. On the surface this seems true to most people that the NFC East is a bad ass division; but for me, I think the NFC East has been a middling division for the last year or two.
Last year I ranked the NFC East in this order.
Philadelphia 12
NY Giants 13
Dallas 15
Washington 26
Very pedestrian if you ask me. (I had the Browns ranked 27th overall.)
Of the three who didn't make the playoffs, none were ranked top ten on offense or defense. Both Dallas and Philly were balanced with 14th and 12th ranked offenses and defenses respectively. The Giants, on the other hand had the 4th rank offense. They were clearly a notch above the rest, even if their record didn't show it.
What does all of this mean? Not much specifically. Generally I find it that defenses don't slide up or down too much from year to year. But team success can change dramatically. Ranking systems such as my own are merely analytical in nature and not predictive. Additionally so much changes on a team from year to year, prior years success or failure can only go so far in projecting a new year.
I will say this though:
I think at this point Eli Manning has proven to the NFL world that he is without a doubt a top talent quarterback who can carry a team. This question was in doubt, I think, as late as the last couple of weeks of last year. After all he never has really put together a big time run racking up big statistics and double digit wins year after year like his brother or Brady. He hasn't had the big time year like Brees or Rogers. But with a second SB win it's more than coincidence that his team flourishes in the playoffs. This kid can play at a level comparable with the best in the league.
And this is the year when he makes the leap from a tier two QB to a tier one QB.
He has a team with top level receiver talent and an average backfield. He's proven to be a much better than average field general, especially when the game is on the line. Now is the time the reigns are completely loosed, and Eli gets to chuck the ball around the field racking up the stats and wins. So long that the defense doesn't implode.
But as far as the NFC East shakes out, I have the Giants finally putting a firm grip on the division, winning it with ease. Running 5-1 among their division foes.
Dallas and Philly mix it up in the middle. Romo is the type of QB who looks good on your fantasy roster but doesn't win with consistency. Especially with an average defense. Philly is on the back slide as the coach is at a point where his team doesn't hear the message anymore. They are also one of these teams that has so much talent without a clear leader, it generally falls apart for a significant stretch (three weeks of struggles at the wrong time is enough to cost the team the division).
Washington has the big rookie, and a fellow like RGIII generally doesn't win in his first year. Running QBs tend to struggle in letting go of their fleet feet and sticking in the pocket to let a play develop. All their life their athleticism has bailed them out. And why not, until college (and maybe then too) they were most likely the best player in their state. But RGIII will run too soon, too often. This makes for great fantasy points, but doesn't translate to wins. So if I'm right, and the typical happens with RGIII, then Washington will take up the rear. If Robert Griffith settles into an athletic pocket QB, then I may be very wrong. An effective Griffith could translate into a wild card slot for DC; but don't bet on it.
Final standings
NY Giants 12 or more wins
Philly 9 wins and waiting to see if the other team chokes their playoff spot away
Dallas 8 wins and wondering yet again when Romo will figure it out
Washington: who cares? Did Robert get enough experience to translate into wins next year? Or did we get to see the kid from Michigan St around week 7?
Browns Addendum**
For my money all of these teams are beatable for the Browns. The Giants the least of all. But all of these teams have erratic coaches and/or talent that makes for streaky teams. I am betting that Eli is ready to take complete control of the team and smoothing it out for his coaching staff so this characteristic may not apply to the Giants anymore; but it isn't out of the realm to think that they might come out flat against the Browns.
Anyway, Philly, Dallas and Washington all either lack the consistency or talent to guarantee a win against the Browns.
Of course the NFL kicks off tonight with defending league champions, the NY Giants, running into the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys. If you're reading this you know this already, or are my wife who may or may not know, but wants to see what I'm typing these days.
My first bold (or kind'a bold) prediction of the season involves the Giants and their division, the NFC East.
According to NFL scheduling protocol, this is the year our Cleveland Browns play all four teams from the NFC East, which historically has two or maybe three strong teams most seasons. On the surface this seems true to most people that the NFC East is a bad ass division; but for me, I think the NFC East has been a middling division for the last year or two.
Last year I ranked the NFC East in this order.
Philadelphia 12
NY Giants 13
Dallas 15
Washington 26
Very pedestrian if you ask me. (I had the Browns ranked 27th overall.)
Of the three who didn't make the playoffs, none were ranked top ten on offense or defense. Both Dallas and Philly were balanced with 14th and 12th ranked offenses and defenses respectively. The Giants, on the other hand had the 4th rank offense. They were clearly a notch above the rest, even if their record didn't show it.
What does all of this mean? Not much specifically. Generally I find it that defenses don't slide up or down too much from year to year. But team success can change dramatically. Ranking systems such as my own are merely analytical in nature and not predictive. Additionally so much changes on a team from year to year, prior years success or failure can only go so far in projecting a new year.
I will say this though:
I think at this point Eli Manning has proven to the NFL world that he is without a doubt a top talent quarterback who can carry a team. This question was in doubt, I think, as late as the last couple of weeks of last year. After all he never has really put together a big time run racking up big statistics and double digit wins year after year like his brother or Brady. He hasn't had the big time year like Brees or Rogers. But with a second SB win it's more than coincidence that his team flourishes in the playoffs. This kid can play at a level comparable with the best in the league.
And this is the year when he makes the leap from a tier two QB to a tier one QB.
He has a team with top level receiver talent and an average backfield. He's proven to be a much better than average field general, especially when the game is on the line. Now is the time the reigns are completely loosed, and Eli gets to chuck the ball around the field racking up the stats and wins. So long that the defense doesn't implode.
But as far as the NFC East shakes out, I have the Giants finally putting a firm grip on the division, winning it with ease. Running 5-1 among their division foes.
Dallas and Philly mix it up in the middle. Romo is the type of QB who looks good on your fantasy roster but doesn't win with consistency. Especially with an average defense. Philly is on the back slide as the coach is at a point where his team doesn't hear the message anymore. They are also one of these teams that has so much talent without a clear leader, it generally falls apart for a significant stretch (three weeks of struggles at the wrong time is enough to cost the team the division).
Washington has the big rookie, and a fellow like RGIII generally doesn't win in his first year. Running QBs tend to struggle in letting go of their fleet feet and sticking in the pocket to let a play develop. All their life their athleticism has bailed them out. And why not, until college (and maybe then too) they were most likely the best player in their state. But RGIII will run too soon, too often. This makes for great fantasy points, but doesn't translate to wins. So if I'm right, and the typical happens with RGIII, then Washington will take up the rear. If Robert Griffith settles into an athletic pocket QB, then I may be very wrong. An effective Griffith could translate into a wild card slot for DC; but don't bet on it.
Final standings
NY Giants 12 or more wins
Philly 9 wins and waiting to see if the other team chokes their playoff spot away
Dallas 8 wins and wondering yet again when Romo will figure it out
Washington: who cares? Did Robert get enough experience to translate into wins next year? Or did we get to see the kid from Michigan St around week 7?
Browns Addendum**
For my money all of these teams are beatable for the Browns. The Giants the least of all. But all of these teams have erratic coaches and/or talent that makes for streaky teams. I am betting that Eli is ready to take complete control of the team and smoothing it out for his coaching staff so this characteristic may not apply to the Giants anymore; but it isn't out of the realm to think that they might come out flat against the Browns.
Anyway, Philly, Dallas and Washington all either lack the consistency or talent to guarantee a win against the Browns.
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