Bold Predictions II

I can't begin to claim that these predictions are published before the season began.  In fact I've already compiled and calculated the first week rankings.  (to be posted soon)

You just have to trust that I haven't allowed the first week to deter my *Bold Predictions*

In my last posting I talked about the NFC east extensively (if a bit on the rambling side), so I won't hit on it much again.

On to the show.

After years of agonizing over the Browns, and trying to fit my world view on football into the pathetic reality of expansion football mixed with incompetent management; I threw my hands up one sunny fall afternoon and told my lovely wife that I had finished with the Browns and was divorcing them.  She wisely took that bit of frustration and parlayed it into several weekends without actually having to watch any football.

As a friend predicted, it would only be a separation.  Which is generally true.  But certainly the separation allowed me to see what really goes on with successful football teams.  What ties them all together.  From my analysis it comes to two things 1) QB play and 2) Coaching.  In that order.

Great QBs are all that matter.  They win year in and year out.  They mean you always have a shot at the postseason.  Period.  This of course isn't to be construed as they always make the postseason.  This is an important distinction.  Even great QBs have off years.  But the shot is always there.  They seldom miss several years in a row.  And they make up for poor defense, special teams and coaching in one fell swoop.  Watch Payton Manning this season as he takes the generally feeble Denver offense and makes them AFC West division champs.

Of course this is where you tell me that I'm just reacting to his dismantling of the vaunted (but noticeably slower) Pittsburgh defense.  Certainly this just reaffirms my position that Denver's D is good enough to contend with an average or below average QB (see Tim Tebow).  But this just means that I think the Broncos will finish with 10 or more wins instead of originally thinking it would be 9.

The rest of the division is mediocre to bad. 

San Diego still seems to be the most talented offense after Denver.  But they still have a second tier QB.  The sort of fellow who can put up numbers but fails to win the really big ones.  And Rivers has yet to prove that he can do it without a hall of fame running back at his side.  

The Raiders are still waking up from the Al Davis haze like a hung over 21 year old at his older brothers bachelors party.  Wondering how the tiger ended up in his bathroom.  Palmer is a third tier QB at best.  But McFadden is the real deal.  Oakland should again play a chaotic roll in the AFC throwing off good teams when tehy think they're on a hot streak.

 Romeo and Chefs (sic) seem to be the sexy up and coming pick yet again.  I've yet to see anything that proves that Cassell is anything more than a systems guy.  A poor mans Flacco.

The AFC South proves that as the level QB play diminishes the importance of the head coach increases.

Both Houston and Tennessee have QBs not quite at that top level.  Of course I'm assuming a lot with Locker.  And he still may prove to be a top tier QB.  Of course Schaub is a second or third level QB with a good coaching staff and defense to go with it. 

I'm going with Tennessee this year.  They have a proven back (although he doesn't look it in week one).  An improved receiver corp.  A good young QB with all the support he needs.  I'm guessing between Schaub's yearly siesta mid season, Houston's lack of experience as the top dog and Tennessee's desire to get back into the playoffs we'll see a switch at the top here this year.

Houston will take a wild card spot.

Jacksonville and Indy are just to weak to consider in teh hunt.  Although the jury is still out on Gabbart.  If he turns around with MJD at his side, you still have a weak team.  Certainly not enough to overcome some tough competition elsewhere in the division and conference.

The AFC East shows you what happens when you mix a great QB with a great coach.  It's called the New England Patriots.  It's possible that they don't win their eighth division title in nine years.  But I'm not betting on it.  When you have a system with a master to run it, you win games.  And beat bad teams into dust.  I do look for NE to be more balanced.  It seems to me that part of their longevity in success comes from an ability to change the nature of the offense as the league catches up.  I'm betting that Ridley is ready to roll and the gaudy Brady numbers will be toned down a bit.  Week one has proven me correct thus far, but I won't claim omniscience yet.

Buffalo, NY Jets and Miami are all beyond much hope anymore.  None have a top tier QB or a top coaching staff.  The Jets are poised for an epic crash and burn.  And Tannehill is not the sort of QB who comes out with the polish of a Dalton.  Buffalo has been another "it" team with people expecting them to turn the corner any minute now.  They'll be waiting all year for that one.

Still two more installments to go.  See you next time.