Week 16

And it's down to the last week of the year.  Not much movement this week in the rankings.  This is more common with week to week changes this late in the year.  The volatile New England shift up and down isn't the norm when there is an entire season of data that holds the average in place.  By now a team is what it is, it's hard to have one performance that will significantly change a teams position.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	ATLANTA	1		8	11		13-2-0	26
2	DENVER	2		6	4		12-3-0	23
3	NEW ENGLAND	3		1	21		11-4-0	25
4	SEATTLE	4		7	2		10-5-0	10
5	SAN FRANCISCO	6		10	3		10-4-1	13
6	HOUSTON	5		9	10		12-3-0	27
7	GREEN BAY	7		4	14		11-4-0	20
8	CHICAGO	8		26	1		9-6-0	10
9	BALTIMORE	10		11	16		10-5-0	21
10	CINCINNATI	9		18	6		9-6-0	30
11	NY GIANTS	11		13	12		8-7-0	1
12	WASHINGTON	14		3	22		9-6-0	14
13	MINNESOTA	12		17	18		9-6-0	8
14	PITTSBURGH	13		20	7		7-8-0	28
15	CAROLINA	17		15	9		6-9-0	4
16	DALLAS	18		12	20		8-7-0	4
17	NEW ORLEANS	19		2	27		7-8-0	9
18	INDIANAPOLIS	15		16	30		10-5-0	32
19	ST LOUIS	20		19	13		7-7-1	7
20	MIAMI	16		23	17		7-8-0	31
21	SAN DIEGO	21		28	8		6-9-0	18
22	DETROIT	22		5	26		4-11-0	2
23	TAMPA BAY	23		14	25		6-9-0	17
24	NY JETS	24		31	15		6-9-0	12
25	CLEVELAND	26		24	19		5-10-0	15
26	ARIZONA	25		32	5		5-10-0	3
27	PHILADELPHIA	27		27	23		4-11-0	6
28	TENNESSEE	30		25	28		5-10-0	22
29	OAKLAND	29		21	29		4-11-0	18
30	BUFFALO	28		22	32		5-10-0	23
31	KANSAS CITY	31		30	24		2-13-0	29
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		29	31		2-13-0	16

Red teams are in.  Blue teams are in as of now.  And Green teams are still in the mix but out as of now.

Seattle has made a monster run up the charts in the past few weeks.  They were 17th in week seven.  But huge scores and holding solid offenses in check will do much to improve the status of a team. 

Really Indianapolis seems to be the only pretender of the season benefiting from the easiest schedule in football.  With the 30th ranked defense it has been smoke, mirrors and emotion.

It would be something if Minnesota makes in in over the Bears who have had the best defense in the league for most of the season.  This sort of display just supports my assertion that QB cannot be overstated.  Cutler just hasn't ever been a winner.

One more week to cap off the season.  Teams are pretty much set, but the final positions will be settled. 

Merry Christmas.

Week 15

Just two more weeks left in our season and the Browns are finally out of it. 

The level of QB play has really improved over the last year.  Young quarterbacks on San Francisco, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Seattle and Washington makes the near term look very good indeed.  As has always been the case, football is driven by the QB.  Just look at the top ten and bottom ten teams.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	ATLANTA	1		9	8		12-2-0	26
2	DENVER	2		7	4		11-3-0	20
3	SAN FRANCISCO	4		8	2		10-3-1	23
4	HOUSTON	3		4	7		12-2-0	27
5	NEW ENGLAND	5		1	19		10-4-0	16
6	SEATTLE	6		10	3		9-5-0	14
7	GREEN BAY	8		6	16		10-4-0	13
8	CHICAGO	7		27	1		8-6-0	4
9	NY GIANTS	9		13	11		8-6-0	2
10	CINCINNATI	10		17	9		8-6-0	31
11	BALTIMORE	12		11	15		9-5-0	24
12	WASHINGTON	13		2	21		8-6-0	7
13	PITTSBURGH	11		20	10		7-7-0	30
14	DALLAS	16		12	18		8-6-0	5
15	MINNESOTA	14		18	22		8-6-0	12
16	CAROLINA	17		14	12		5-9-0	1
17	INDIANAPOLIS	15		16	29		9-5-0	32
18	NEW ORLEANS	19		3	28		6-8-0	8
19	ST LOUIS	21		19	14		6-7-1	3
20	MIAMI	18		23	20		6-8-0	29
21	SAN DIEGO	20		28	6		5-9-0	14
22	TAMPA BAY	23		15	25		6-8-0	17
23	DETROIT	22		5	26		4-10-0	9
24	NY JETS	24		31	13		6-8-0	10
25	CLEVELAND	25		25	17		5-9-0	18
26	ARIZONA	26		32	5		5-9-0	11
27	TENNESSEE	27		24	27		5-9-0	25
28	PHILADELPHIA	29		26	23		4-10-0	5
29	BUFFALO	28		22	32		5-9-0	20
30	OAKLAND	30		21	30		4-10-0	18
31	KANSAS CITY	31		30	24		2-12-0	28
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		29	31		2-12-0	20

All of the top ten have top or second tier QBs.  One could argue the Cutler (CHI) and Schaub (HOU) are two that fall into the third tier.  But they also play on teams that are well rounded.  And both have shown some ability to play at a very high level.

Now compare those players to the bottom ten.  Except for Detroit, the bottom ten are filled with teams desperate to find the right field commander.

Never underestimate the value of a QB, and never hesitate to upgrade that position.  I'm not calling for the replacement of Weeden just yet.  But I will say that if the new leaders of the Browns feel that they have a better player in mind.  Go get him.

As for the Browns; when the chips were on the line, it was the rookie from Michigan State who stepped up and looked like the experienced veteran.  I worry that Weeden was a failure in baseball because of his makeup more than his physical ability.  This would mean that he never will be able to excel at the highest level.  The silver lining is that this should put to rest the whole "Shurmer has earned another year" nonsense.  Hopefully the Browns can finish out the year playing strong against the Broncos and closing the door on the Steelers.  It would be a nice change if they could end another teams season rather than be their stepping stone.

The bottom line this week, the Browns showed up to try to make the opponent beat them through the air... and their opponent did.  Containment of the Redskin running game was pretty solid, but they had no answer for a smart young, mobile QB who was coached up to play at a high level.  Cousins made few mistakes and never the really big one.  It reminded me of some of Andy Dalton's games from a year ago.  I just hope that Cousins gets a chance to play somewhere and get a full time shot.

Maybe in Cleveland.

Week 14

Well it only took fourteen weeks.  And here we are with two old familiar faces on top of the leaderboard.

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	NEW ENGLAND	1		1	18		10-3-0	28
2	DENVER	5		8	4		10-3-0	21
3	HOUSTON	2		4	7		11-2-0	30
4	SAN FRANCISCO	4		9	2		9-3-1	25
5	ATLANTA	3		11	16		11-2-0	31
6	NY GIANTS	6		6	8		8-5-0	12
7	SEATTLE	7		13	3		8-5-0	17
8	CHICAGO	8		27	1		8-5-0	10
9	GREEN BAY	9		7	19		9-4-0	10
10	BALTIMORE	10		12	14		9-4-0	19
11	PITTSBURGH	11		21	6		7-6-0	27
12	CINCINNATI	12		15	15		7-6-0	29
13	WASHINGTON	14		3	21		7-6-0	4
14	INDIANAPOLIS	13		16	28		9-4-0	31
15	MINNESOTA	15		18	23		7-6-0	14
16	DALLAS	16		14	17		7-6-0	2
17	TAMPA BAY	17		10	20		6-7-0	24
18	ST LOUIS	19		20	12		6-6-1	9
19	SAN DIEGO	18		28	5		5-8-0	23
20	CAROLINA	21		17	10		4-9-0	1
21	DETROIT	20		2	26		4-9-0	6
22	NY JETS	22		31	11		6-7-0	8
23	CLEVELAND	24		24	13		5-8-0	22
24	NEW ORLEANS	25		5	30		5-8-0	5
25	MIAMI	23		26	22		5-8-0	18
26	PHILADELPHIA	27		23	25		4-9-0	14
27	BUFFALO	26		22	31		5-8-0	26
28	TENNESSEE	29		25	27		4-9-0	7
29	ARIZONA	28		32	9		4-9-0	3
30	KANSAS CITY	30		30	24		2-11-0	20
31	OAKLAND	31		19	32		3-10-0	16
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		29	29		2-11-0	13

That's right.  Tom Brady and Payton Manning are united again on the two best teams in the NFL.

What's more interesting is that the dismantling of a top ten defense by the Patriots has catapulted them from fourth to first.

But you may ask, "But how could you put them at first if they have such a low rated defense?"

Well my first answer is that I didn't decide on the final rankings specifically at all.  I created a system by which I plug in weekly stats and the model computes the rest.  My subjective biases are all within the model when weighting the importance of one stat versus another.  My biases are not based on week to week impressions of bits and pieces of game highlights.  Everything is, "just the stats ma'am".

But you may then ask, "But how could your lousy system make such a blunder by placing the Patriots ahead of two arguably better balanced teams with equal or better records?  You must have some offensive bias.  Yes that must be it.  You set up a model where the offense is more important so that you can downgrade the Steelers rankings."

Certainly anyone who knows my feelings on the Steelers would agree that this theory has some face validity. 

But my reply would be: My system is operating just fine thank you.  And I'll ignore that snarky comment and point out that the Patriots so dominate the offensive categories that they overwhelm all other categories of measurement.  I weight overall offense and defense score equally in the power ranking.

Never since the perfect Patriots team of 2007 has a team so dominated a side of the ball.  The Patriots have a perfect score on offense.  The next ranked offense (of the Detroit Lions) is 25% less in its score value.

To remind everyone, the one thing I do with all the scores is what I call a normalization process.  I take all the differing measurements and distill them down into a like number.  It's a way to take apples and oranges and make them comparable for this exercise.  Additionally the normalization process doesn't just sort out and standardize the scores for different categories, it also allows for the distribution of the data to reflect through to the final ranking.  It allows for just this case where one team has a large lead on the next competitor.  In many ranking systems people just rank the offense on 1 to 32.  It implies that each step down is equal.  That the difference between the first and second team is the same difference as between the 30th and 31st.  But in a real application of statistical measurement this may or may not be the case.

Which it isn't in this one.  It almost never is the case that data is evenly distributed.  That's the thing they don't really talk about in Urban Planning statistic classes.

To put this dominance in another light.   The difference between the number one Chicago defense and the number two San Francisco defense is only 5%.

On the bright side the Browns have clawed their way into mediocrity.  Yea!

I still want Shurmer canned.


Cheers!

Week 13

And here we are at the end of 13 weeks.

Nothing too new here.  Cleveland's less than dominating (statistical) performance against the worst defense in the league didn't help their case.  

		RANK W/OUT WEIGHT		OFFENSE RANK	DEFENSE RANK		RECORD	SS
1	HOUSTON	1		3	6		11-1-0	30
2	ATLANTA	2		11	10		11-1-0	32
3	DENVER	4		7	3		9-3-0	11
4	NEW ENGLAND	3		1	18		9-3-0	29
5	SAN FRANCISCO	5		10	2		8-3-1	21
6	NY GIANTS	7		8	9		7-5-0	12
7	CHICAGO	6		27	1		8-4-0	17
8	BALTIMORE	8		12	11		9-3-0	24
9	GREEN BAY	9		5	21		8-4-0	7
10	PITTSBURGH	10		22	5		7-5-0	26
11	SEATTLE	12		16	8		7-5-0	16
12	CINCINNATI	11		15	16		7-5-0	28
13	TAMPA BAY	14		9	19		6-6-0	23
14	WASHINGTON	15		6	22		6-6-0	4
15	INDIANAPOLIS	13		14	29		8-4-0	31
16	MINNESOTA	16		17	23		6-6-0	18
17	DALLAS	17		13	17		6-6-0	4
18	DETROIT	18		2	26		4-8-0	13
19	NEW ORLEANS	21		4	31		5-7-0	9
20	ST LOUIS	22		19	14		5-6-1	3
21	SAN DIEGO	19		28	4		4-8-0	22
22	MIAMI	20		26	20		5-7-0	27
23	CAROLINA	23		21	12		3-9-0	1
24	NY JETS	25		32	13		5-7-0	2
25	CLEVELAND	26		25	15		4-8-0	18
26	ARIZONA	24		31	7		4-8-0	13
27	BUFFALO	27		20	30		5-7-0	25
28	TENNESSEE	28		24	27		4-8-0	6
29	PHILADELPHIA	29		23	25		3-9-0	10
30	KANSAS CITY	30		29	24		2-10-0	15
31	OAKLAND	31		18	32		3-9-0	20
32	JACKSONVILLE	32		30	28		2-10-0	8

Now is also the time that the track record starts to tell you a story.  Teams like Cincinnati and Indianapolis have consistently improved this season, while Arizona and Philadelphia have been in a tail-spin. 

		WK 6	WK 7	WK 8	WK 9	WK10	WK 11	WK12	WK13
ARIZONA		10	11	17	20	20	21	24	26
ATLANTA		2	2	1	1	2	3	2	2
BALTIMORE		6	10	9	10	9	9	8	8
BUFFALO		24	29	28	29	29	28	29	27
CAROLINA		25	28	25	21	26	22	20	23
CHICAGO		4	4	5	4	5	8	7	7
CINCINNATI		22	24	24	26	19	17	13	12
CLEVELAND		29	30	30	30	30	30	25	25
DALLAS		15	15	15	15	15	15	19	17
DENVER		8	6	6	5	3	4	4	3
DETROIT		11	12	12	11	13	14	15	18
GREEN BAY		13	8	8	8	7	6	9	9
HOUSTON		1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1
INDIANAPOLIS		26	25	21	18	17	20	18	15
JACKSONVILLE		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
KANSAS CITY		31	31	31	31	31	31	31	30
MIAMI		18	16	13	16	24	25	22	22
MINNESOTA		9	9	11	14	12	13	14	16
NEW ENGLAND		7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4
NEW ORLEANS		27	23	27	19	16	16	17	19
NY GIANTS		3	3	3	6	8	7	6	6
NY JETS		23	22	22	23	28	26	26	24
OAKLAND		28	27	20	24	27	29	30	31
PHILADELPHIA		17	18	19	22	22	27	28	29
PITTSBURGH		20	13	10	9	10	11	10	10
SAN DIEGO		21	21	23	17	18	18	21	21
SAN FRANCISCO		5	5	4	3	4	2	3	5
SEATTLE		12	17	16	12	11	10	11	11
ST LOUIS		16	19	26	27	21	23	23	20
TAMPA BAY		19	20	14	13	14	12	12	13
TENNESSEE		30	26	29	28	23	24	27	28
WASHINGTON		14	14	18	25	25	19	16	14

See you next week.