Bold Predictions I

I need to get this post in before it's no longer viable to claim that I haven't watched any regular season football this year. 

Of course the NFL kicks off tonight with defending league champions, the NY Giants, running into the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys.  If you're reading this you know this already, or are my wife who may or may not know, but wants to see what I'm typing these days.

My first bold (or kind'a bold) prediction of the season involves the Giants and their division, the NFC East.

According to NFL scheduling protocol, this is the year our Cleveland Browns play all four teams from the NFC East, which historically has two or maybe three strong teams most seasons.  On the surface this seems true to most people that the NFC East is a bad ass division; but for me, I think the NFC East has been a middling division for the last year or two.

Last year I ranked the NFC East in this order.

Philadelphia   12
NY Giants     13
Dallas            15
Washington    26

Very pedestrian if you ask me.  (I had the Browns ranked 27th overall.)

Of the three who didn't make the playoffs, none were ranked top ten on offense or defense.  Both Dallas and Philly were balanced with 14th and 12th ranked offenses and defenses respectively.  The Giants, on the other hand had the 4th rank offense.  They were clearly a notch above the rest, even if their record didn't show it.

What does all of this mean?  Not much specifically.  Generally I find it that defenses don't slide up or down too much from year to year.  But team success can change dramatically.  Ranking systems such as my own are merely analytical in nature and not predictive.  Additionally so much changes on a team from year to year, prior years success or failure can only go so far in projecting a new year.

I will say this though:

I think at this point Eli Manning has proven to the NFL world that he is without a doubt a top talent quarterback who can carry a team.  This question was in doubt, I think, as late as the last couple of weeks of last year.  After all he never has really put together a big time run racking up big statistics and double digit wins year after year like his brother or Brady.  He hasn't had the big time year like Brees or Rogers.  But with a second SB win it's more than coincidence that his team flourishes in the playoffs.  This kid can play at a level comparable with the best in the league.

And this is the year when he makes the leap from a tier two QB to a tier one QB.

He has a team with top level receiver talent and an average backfield.  He's proven to be a much better than average field general, especially when the game is on the line.  Now is the time the reigns are completely loosed, and Eli gets to chuck the ball around the field racking up the stats and wins.  So long that the defense doesn't implode.

But as far as the NFC East shakes out, I have the Giants finally putting a firm grip on the division, winning it with ease.  Running 5-1 among their division foes. 

Dallas and Philly mix it up in the middle.  Romo is the type of QB who looks good on your fantasy roster but doesn't win with consistency.  Especially with an average defense.  Philly is on the back slide as the coach is at a point where his team doesn't hear the message anymore.  They are also one of these teams that has so much talent without a clear leader, it generally falls apart for a significant stretch (three weeks of struggles at the wrong time is enough to cost the team the division). 

Washington has the big rookie, and a fellow like RGIII generally doesn't win in his first year.  Running QBs tend to struggle in letting go of their fleet feet and sticking in the pocket to let a play develop.  All their life their athleticism has bailed them out.  And why not, until college (and maybe then too) they were most likely the best player in their state.  But RGIII will run too soon, too often.  This makes for great fantasy points, but doesn't translate to wins.  So if I'm right, and the typical happens with RGIII, then Washington will take up the rear.  If Robert Griffith settles into an athletic pocket QB, then I may be very wrong.  An effective Griffith could translate into a wild card slot for DC; but don't bet on it.

Final standings

NY Giants  12 or more wins
Philly 9 wins and waiting to see if the other team chokes their playoff spot away
Dallas 8 wins and wondering yet again when Romo will figure it out
Washington: who cares?  Did Robert get enough experience to translate into wins next year? Or did we get   to see the kid from Michigan St around week 7?

Browns Addendum**

For my money all of these teams are beatable for the Browns.  The Giants the least of all.  But all of these teams have erratic coaches and/or talent that makes for streaky teams.  I am betting that Eli is ready to take complete control of the team and smoothing it out for his coaching staff so this characteristic may not apply to the Giants anymore; but it isn't out of the realm to think that they might come out flat against the Browns. 

Anyway, Philly, Dallas and Washington all either lack the consistency or talent to guarantee a win against the Browns.