Part of gathering that data also revealed another little bit of what I thought was interesting data.
Division Winning Streaks and Parity Cycles
In looking at playoff participants I went back to 1970 and what some would consider the start of the modern NFL. This was the first year after the merger of the NFL and AFL.
From 1970 to 1977 the league was dominated by a handful of teams winning over and again. The eight year period included the following playoff runs; Baltimore (5 appearances), Pittsburgh (6 appearances), Oakland (7 appearances), Dallas (7 appearances), Minnesota (7 appearances) and LA Rams (5 appearances). It was also a period of stability in the division winner measurement as well.
Beginning in 1978 the league expanded from one wild card to two wild cards, and this seems a good break point where the shift to so called "parity" begins.
None-the-less, these are the longest consecutive division winning streaks in the modern NFL. (1970 to present)
| LOS ANGELES RAMS | '73 TO '79 | 7 |
| PITTSBURGH | '74 TO '79 | 6 |
| MINNESOTA | '73 TO '78 | 6 |
| NEW ENGLAND | '03 TO '07 | 5 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | '03 TO '07 | 5 |
| DALLAS | '92 TO '96 | 5 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | '86 TO '90 | 5 |
| CHICAGO | '84 TO '88 | 5 |
| OAKLAND | '72 TO '76 | 5 |
| SEATTLE | '04 TO '07 | 4 |
| PHILADELPHIA | '01 TO '04 | 4 |
| PITTSBURGH | '94 TO '97 | 4 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | '92 TO '95 | 4 |
| BUFFALO | '88 TO '91 | 4 |
| DALLAS | '76 TO '79 | 4 |
| MIAMI | '71 TO '74 | 4 |
Only four years in this modern period resulted in no team defending their division title. 1983 (proceeded by the strike year where no division winners were awarded), 1992, 1998 and 2000. Currently there is one team holding a streak; and New England (fresh off their five year streak that was ended in 2007) is looking to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row.
But this past season wasn't the only year to have but one defending division winner hold their title. 1980, 1981, 1991, 1999, 2001 and 2011 seasons all resulted in only one team defending their division crown.
On the flip side there have only been five seasons where four teams successfully defended their division; 1984, 1987, 2004, 2006, 2007. 1978 is the one and only season since 1977 where five teams defended their division. (The mid-90's saw several years of three repeat winners). Also keep in mind that the league went from six to eight divisions in 2002.
Now I didn't run the numbers officially in statistic land, but the results since 1977 don't seem to bear a statistically relevant set of data to support the notion that the league is increasing in parity during this 35 year period. On the other hand there may be some evidence that a sort of cycle has set in where periods of dominance by a few teams are followed by a free for all as the next big thing comes along. It also seems to run in a ten year cycle. And it seems that we happen to be in another period of "big-dog-less-ness".
Why this is certainly would be up for debate. As I say in my job, "I can show you what is happening, but everyone will have their own why"
The "what" in this case is that there are far fewer dominant teams in the league than in the past. "So what?" you may say, "Everyone knows that." And sure it's good to run the data yourself to see what there is to see. But what I would also say is that the parity level has remained fairly stable in a cyclical manner since the old NFL was washed away in 1977. Since then we've seen three periods of lesser parity and we are in the fourth period of greater parity. The aggregate for the entire period would fairly be judged as being flat. The comparison that makes this statement true, "The NFL today has far more parity than in the past", can only be between the eras before 1977 and after 1977.
The "Why" will have to wait for another day.
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